A year of War..What is the rebuilding plan?

Has anyone considered that we have to rebuild Ukraine?

About a year ago I was drinking with some friends. I went to check my phone as the tensions in Ukraine were ratcheting up and war seemed inevitable. He said, “How is the war in Ukraine?” I then updated my Twitter feed and saw a rocket landing in Kiev. “It has just started”, was my reply. We were amazed. It was happening. 

Almost immediately we were lifelong allies and supporters of Ukraine. We had changed the names of cities too. Zelensky was a progressive hero in America. He is no different from any American Liberal, he even considered legalizing porn in September of 2022. Quite progressive indeed. We even stopped talking about Nazis in Ukraine. This part should show the true colors of the press, as they are not normally the ones to neglect such an important connection.

Now, this war is approaching its first year and where are we? There are a lot of dead bodies, a whole swath of shattered concrete, and a nation in ruins. The rhetoric of “we had to do this”, “We can not allow aggressor nations to attack their neighbors”, or the holy “this is a fight for democracy” is still being repeated but does this mean anything when you are looking at the pictures? This is just one city, but there are plenty.

Yes, I understand Putin is the one who invaded, but we have known this was going to be their move for years. But like any good chess player, you anticipate the opponent’s reaction to your next play. We trapped Putin, if he has to invade then we can make it hard and maybe even collapse his state for a warm fuzzy.

I am stealing Curtis Yarvin’s analogy here, but imagine America as a house dog that goes out and kills animals, maybe sheep or wild game. Because it was descended from wolves it will catch and kill the other animal, but does not eat what it kills, and instead comes home to eat. These wars are expensive and the nation as a whole does not gain from them so why do it? Because it feels natural and right to do. We can feel like a wolf but still need the same store-bought food.

If we are the dog our natural instinct at this point is to defend democracy. Our defending democracy is what we have done in Lybia, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. They are not remembered or known for the creation of democracy but for the collapse of states. If an American shows up offering democracy make sure he is not already drooling and licking his lips.

Americans can feel good that they defended you against tyranny when your once semi- to completely functioning government has now been washed away from the blast of a predator drone.

Unlike a Phoenix

This question brings the entire point of the conflict into question. Who will rebuild this heap of rubble? Entire cities are shattered, a ton of powerplants and substations have been destroyed and roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s population lives abroad as refugees. The gas generator has become a major piece of urban infrastructure.

When this war ends who will be there? America has a poor track record on the rebuilding front. We liberated Afghanistan but it will be the Taliban who rebuilds. Once, if ever, the chaos ends in Lybia, it will be the Libyans who rebuild. We have not been in the rebuilding industry since we won WWII and negotiated a cease-fire in Korea.

If this conflict ends with America and friends leaving, we can assume our money is coming with us. That leaves Ukraine, or what is left independent, alone. They will try to rebuild, but how effective can their efforts be?

Imagine for a moment if you were heralded across the globe as the defender of democracy and the entire first world was with you and they would never leave. Then they leave…Your friends and family died, your home was destroyed, and the same outcome arrived as if you did nothing. But you naively listened to the west, the house dog, as it thrashed your life and country around, spit it out, and left to go home for dinner.

You would be rightfully outraged. You were played like a chump. Your once poor country is now decimated, it is a cold version of Lybia. We can be sure that arming and training every man for combat has no downsides in a failed state. Ukraine does not become peaceful after America leaves and Russia takes what it wants. It becomes a warzone. Paramilitary groups have fought and sacrificed their men and time and will get their due.

Now your home and neighborhood are fought over by warlords. There is a state, that may or may not be in control of your home, but that is not definite. And what if they are pro-Russian? What was this for?

America will not remember the effort we put into Ukraine, that we can be sure of. We have forgotten many people and it does not affect the psyche of the masses at all. You better pray that the Azov is not in charge of your home, because you will assuredly get sanctioned. Those once defending you might now be condemning you. How the tables have turned.

There is no positive outlook for Ukraine and thinking there is one is foolish. No this is not pro-Russian because life in former Ukraine and now Russia will most assuredly be awful, but at least they have a government keeping the water clean and power on.

What of the democratic government of Ukraine after the war, well if it turns out as I predict, Zelensky will be gone or a tyrant. There will be a reason it is unsafe for him to stay and he can play himself in a movie about the heroic defense. Or he might turn out to be a villain. Once the west is done with him we condemn him and his totalitarian views. Either one can play out and neither would surprise me. Both have happened.

But this is not the story of a single Ukrainian coming to live in America or declared a tyrant, but the tens of millions of Ukrainians who gave everything for a cause that was lost from the beginning. They are left to rebuild what they can. There might be trickles of relief money coming from international aid foundations, but those are often riddled with corruption.

That brings us to the final point of rebuilding Ukraine, the government. Before the war, it was viewed as one of the most corrupt European nations. The corruption has not been wiped away. It would be hard to assume that creating an anti-corruption plan in June of 2022 will have cleared a lot of corruption. There are no sober-minded people predicting that the rebuilding will be easy or done quickly. Pairing a nationalized economy with massive corruption is a recipe for failure. Add some infighting and you open the door to a multi-year civil war. Look at Afghanistan. We armed a people to the teeth to kill Russians and before you know it they are enemy number one.

To those who argue that it is different when has it ever been? All of these wars are claimed as necessary and turn out not to be. The game plan has not changed so why would the outcome? The only difference is the latitude and the religion they worship.